The Best 25 Longform Articles – 2023 Edition

It’s taken me 1000 days to read through this latest batch of 250 Longform articles. From that pool, 25 can be confidently tagged ‘Superb‘. All listed below with links and brief explanation on what each longform is about.

This brings the total running tally of LFAs read, since this project kicked off in 2016, to 1000 longform essays. I have blogged 4 times earlier on this ongoing, no deadline project. In those posts I had nominated the best 75 LFAs from 750 read. Post 1 herePost 2 herePost 3 here. Post 4 here. This latest 25 ‘BestOf‘ LFAs from 250 read 1000 days, brings the tally of ‘winners’ to a clean 100 from a total pool of 1000. Links to all 100 are in the 5 posts.

All 25 essays here below have links embedded. I can vouch a few will change your life if you read them. If you need some convincing try this gem as an appetizer. It’s one of the winners and makes a persuasive arguement for essays. 

I also did some digging to see if there was a trend or pattern to who and what I was leaning towards in my recent reads. I meta-tagged the 250 LFAs on what they were about and then generated a wordcloud to see what I was mostly reading about and around. Data says I am all over the place. And that relieved me. The fact I cannot zero in one one subject I seem to be obsessed with/about agrees with one of my core tenets. Reading in a narrow lane is detrimental to the goal of being a true well rounded reading flaneur.

Auto generated wordcloud from the themes of my reading above

And was there any particular person(s) I favored in the latest tranche of 250 ? Data says there was a distinct preference in my reading for the following writers I have listed below ⬇. Looking at them a second wave of relief washed over me. I think I am reading some sharp, smart, good thinkers and writers so I am really pleased about this reveal. And I also realized in this tranche I am quite partial towards anything that helps me better understand the soul sapping culture war we are all in. And lastly, a few of the essays here are under 3000 words but they pack more punch than some 10000 word blahs that barely registered. Case in point – Didions essay on Self Respect.

Here then are my favourite writers off late. I will read pretty much anything they write without a moments hesitation:

Paul Graham is an English computer scientist, essayist, entrepreneur, investor, and author. 7 (!) of the best 25, from a wide pool of 250 decent essays read, were written by Paul.

Scott Alexander Siskind is a prolifc blogger and psychiatrist. He is the author of the blogs Slate Star Codex (SSC) and its successor Astral Codex Ten (ACX). He would get Vote #1 for ‘Living Geniuses I read‘ (now that Hitchens is dead). He writes about pretty much anything and everything but I am a big fan of his punchy book reviews. His essays are dense but have high payoffs. And he’s written one of those few ‘shook my being’ essays.

Ben Thompson is an American business, technology, and media analyst, who is based in Taiwan. He is the author of Stratechery, a newsletter featuring commentary on tech and media news. Through his essays understanding the technology landscape is made a much easier task.

Howard Marks is an American investor and writer. He is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, the largest investor in distressed securities worldwide. Warren B writes once a year. Mark fills the gap and writes every few weeks and every newsletter is a masterclass in how to think about markets, investing and risk.

Andrew Sullivan is a British-American author, editor, and blogger. Sullivan is a political commentator and his essays on the zietgiest are sharp, witty and a great lense to understand the hellish morass that is the current news cycle.

Morgan Housel is an financial blogger and an expert on behavioral finance and history. He was a former finance columnist at The Motley Fool and The Wall Street Journal and now his essays hosted on Callab Fund are masterclasses on how to approach life and money.

Ok. Enough with the throat clearning. Here are the goods :

The Age of the Essay, written 2 decades ago, makes a superb case for why this medium is so potent and reinforced to me why reading it is such a pleasure, especially when the job is done by a true artist of the medium. Like Paul.

‘How to Think for Yourself’ is a brilliant primer on how to innoculate yourself as an independent-minded thinker in the midst of this NPC plague where everyone parrots their party line.

‘How People Get Rich Now’ is an essay by Paul Graham where he explains what changed from how people got rich earlier and why this is so. A great essay for anyone interested in wealth building or creating the next unicorn or both.

‘How to Make Wealth’ , also by Paul Graham can be read as a prequel/sequel to the above essay. They were written 17 years apart by blend well as a duo in helping understand wealth as a phenomenon and how to approach theart of accumulating it.

‘How to work hard’ explains the right attitude you need to bring to the hard work trope. This essay revised my thinking of the cliched concept and approach. Another Paul Graham winner.

How to Do Great Work is a recent essay that is destined to be a classic. Graham fastidiously walks the reader through the entire concept and implementation of this hard to reach, hard to teach concept. Long but oh so well out.

Heresy . Up till about 1985 the overton window had been growing ever wider. Anyone looking into the future in 1985 would have expected freedom of expression to continue to increase. Instead it has decreased. Paul dives into why this is so.

Book Review: The Man From The Future (John von Neumann). Scott Alexander reviews the book The Man From The Future, by Ananyo Bhattacharya, to gawk at an extreme human specimen, maybe the smartest man who ever lived. Gawk along with him in this fantastic essay. We need a dozen Neumanns now more than ever.

Book Review: Fussell On Class is a summary and commentary on Paul Fussell’s “Class: A Guide Through The American Status System”. As a resident and citizen of Britain, the country that invented and later perfected it, this book review by Scott does a great job delving into the phenomenon.

Book Review: Bobos In Paradise is another book review by Scott, that pairs beautifully with the above Fussell review, on examing the genesis of the today’s upper class.

Why aren’t smart people happier? is an essay that aims to answer modern day philosopher Naval’s twist to the platitudinal question. “If you are so smart why aren’t you happy?” . This essay tries, tried hard and gives the reader some decent grub for thought.

Writing In Public, Inside Your Company is an essay I wish I had read the moment I started my corporate career 22 years ago. A superb longform that guide on how to write well inside the workplace.

The Purpose of Writing and the lost art of thinking goes well with the above essay and here Sven makes a fantastic case for why and how Writing clarifies and sharpens your thoughts in a way that is superior to merely articulating them in a conversation. Bonus : this is a short essay.

The Turn is another short essay. I still added it in here because it a superb one. The author writes about why, finally, he broke off with the new loony left. Best paired with the above Heresy essay by Paul Graham.

The Fall of Robespierre: 24 Hours in Revolutionary Paris is a book review hosted at ACX. Never knew of Robespierre before reading this book review and 2 paras in I was hooked. What a day that must have been in Paris. This review is a fantastic summary of book and day.

Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle is another book review hosted at ACX. Did not know what to expect going in but coming out of it, after reading this, I had that oh-so-rare emotion of ‘Good Lord, this explains SO MUCH of my current environment’ feeling that so few essays and books achieve. More people should know about Guy Debord.

Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance is yet another book review hosted at ACX. It reviews the book ‘1587, A Year of No Significance: The Ming Dynasty in Decline‘ and you walk away post reading away feeling like you were almost there in that non event year. A superb painting of a distant period via a well written book review.

Want to understand the genesis of this ongoing soul sapping culture war? Erik Torenberg’s done the heavy lifting for you via this 3 part series that explains how we all got unwillingly drafted into this sordid no winner war and ended in the stinking trenches we are all huddling in.

Truth, Status, and Tribes, The tensions between truth and social cohesion is another Erik Torenberg essay that does a superb job explaining just WHY people act and react the way they do in this ongoing soul sapping culture war. A solid hypothesis well written.

The Erosion of Deep Literacy sees Adam Garfinkle delving into what happens to a population when their attention span and IQ are assaulted by the double curse of a corrupted MSM and subpar education.

Pair the above three reads with this short gem from Amanda Fortini in the Free Press. In ‘Real Life Does Not Fit The Narrative’ Amanda rages beautifually against the prefabricated narratives we are sprayed with daily where the purpose of the narratives we are fed by the governing elites and mainstream media is to obscure reality, not to reveal it.

Bari Weiss is the founder and editor of The Free Press. In this stirring speech The New Founders America Needs, to students at The University of Austin, she makes a standing ovation worthy case for why it is time to join the true intellectual resistance. Goes well with The Turn and Heresy listed above.

The Opinion Pageant. Or how the pressure to have an opinion is creating a fake society Round off the culture war grand tour with this sharp essay from Gurwinder, a substack blogger who smartly explains the opinion pageant and the fraudulent world we now find ourselves living in.

Now we are going to go ‘Old School’ to read 2 classics by true legends of the medium. These two are the kind of essays that makes you react exactly like the Banderas meme :

Joan Didion, author, journalist, and style icon, died recently after a prolonged illness. She was 87 years old. Here now is Didion’s seminal essay “Self-respect: Its Source, Its Power” which was first published in Vogue in 1961. Didion wrote the essay as the magazine was going to press, to fill the space left after another writer did not produce a piece on the same subject. She wrote it not to a word count or a line count, but to an exact character count. Legend. And what an essay it is.

Last year I became a British citizen. To hit that happy milestone I had to pass a lifeless bland quiz mandated by the current goulishly led Home Office. I am certain the goal is to ensure wannabe citizens understand this country a wee bit more than they did landing in. But then here is an epic Orwell essay that does that job more thoroughly vs any soulless test. “England Your England” is an  astoundingly penetrating essay written by George Orwell during The Blitz of 1941 as bombers of Nazi Germany flew overhead. It was his attempt to define English culture and the English people for the rest of the world as he feared that it might soon be wiped out by the Nazis. I remember reading this on my kindle on a flight back to London and as the plane approached English shores from the east, crossing the channel from France, I had this sublime moment when I felt like I knew my adopted country’s soul better than I ever had and what it meant to be English. Essays like this is why I will never stop reading them and why 30 years from now I hope to still be blogging about my favourite 25 from the last 250 read.

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So there is it. 25 of my favourite essays from 250 read in ~900 days. Next update ? When I finish 1100. Hopefully by the start of summer of 2024. Until then enjoy these above treats. For when you are done you will agree they so are.

The Best 15 Longform Articles – 2021 Edition

In the last 1 year I have managed to read up 150 more longforms articles (LFA) and from those I have picked 15 that I rate with as ‘Superb‘. Reading these 15 was pure pleasure and a few of them also managed to open the mind to some brilliant concepts and out there ideas.

So now the total running tally of LFAs read since I started this project in 2016 comes to 750 Articles in all. I have blogged thrice on this ongoing, no end date project before and nominated the best 60 LFAs of 600 in these three seperate posts from earlier. Post 1 here. Post 2 here. Post 3 here.

The latest 15 ‘BestOf‘ LFAs brings the tally of ‘winners’ to 75, this from the total pool of 750 read over the last 5 years. All 15 chosen have links to the actual articles below. I do hope you read a few. What a time to be alive when all of it is free.

An investigative reporting on the Mafia in Naples and the man who ran it for decades. Superb writeup, thrilling true story.

https://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2012/05/naples-mob-paolo-di-lauro-italy
30 Years Ago, Romania Deprived Thousands of Babies of Human Contact. Here’s what’s become of them.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/can-an-unloved-child-learn-to-love/612253/
Crony Beliefs by Kevin Simler on his blog ‘Melting Asphalt’.

(If you want to better understand why X people believe in Y, this may be the best explanation for it)

https://meltingasphalt.com/crony-beliefs/
How Pakistan got its Nukes.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2005/11/the-wrath-of-khan/4333/
How do people really advance through the corporate hierarchy? Hint: it’s not by working the hardest.

https://defmacro.substack.com/p/how-to-get-promoted
Paul Graham on Conformism.

http://paulgraham.com/conformism.html
STUDIES ON SLACK – Another gem from slatestarcodex

(Scott draws parallels between the ways these different systems balance competition and slack and how it affects the entities involved.)

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/12/studies-on-slack/
The 1969 Playboy Interview of Marshall McLuhan about the impact of the media on man.

https://web.cs.ucdavis.edu/~rogaway/classes/188/spring07/mcluhan.pdf
The Internet of Beefs by Venkatesh Rao

(Never have I read a better explanation of the current culture wars)

https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2020/01/16/the-internet-of-beefs/
The Mind of Marc Andreessen

(A superb profile of a damn interesting man)

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/05/18/tomorrows-advance-man
The Three Sides of Risk by Morgan Housel

(if you want to ever read a superb essay of ‘RISK’ this is it)

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-three-sides-of-risk/
Twilight of the Media Elites

(Most of what passes for ‘news’ is like a mixture of entertainment and propaganda. Here is the reason why it is so)

https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/twilight-of-the-media-elites
Why Do Corporations speak the Way They Do?

https://www.vulture.com/2020/02/spread-of-corporate-speak.html
What You Can’t Say | January 2004 | Paul Graham on Censorship and Heresy

http://www.paulgraham.com/say.html
ZIRP explains the world | A speculative but superb “theory of everything”

https://themargins.substack.com/p/zirp-explains-the-world
BEST 15 LFAs

My long term goal, besides getting educated by reading these LFAs, is also to ensure I never veer into reading from a echo chamber of similar publications. So I keenly track just where my LFAs are flowing in from. And for the latest batch of 150 the breakdown is below. So these 150 LFAs came from 60 different website. I am OK with that kind of diversity.

Link to Earlier Posts on BestOf LFAs :

0-100
The Best 10 Longform Articles of 100 I Read
https://shivashetty.com/2016/09/22/how-you-can-tell-100-cool-stories-at-your-next-party/

101-300
The Best 20 Longform Articles I read
https://shivashetty.com/2018/03/02/the-20-best-articles-from-3-long-years-hunting-for-them/

301-600
The Best 30 Longform Articles of 300 I Read
https://shivashetty.com/2020/03/29/the-best-30-longform-articles-of-300-read/

Photo by Thought Catalog on Pexels.com

The ‘5-35-60’ change framework

“EVERYTHING IS CHANGING. NEW NEW THING WILL NOW REPLACE THE OLD NEW THING!”

We who swim in this vast and polluted information ocean that is zero cost self publishing platforms (twitter, blogs, IG,FB) and old media gone digital (print, tv) sense it all the time. It perenially feels like the above line is the undertone in and of all headlines this century.

Every media entity and business firm that is vested in change is keenly interested in convincing all of us that everything is changing and fast and if we don’t change and fast, we will be left behind. This is bloody exhausting. Most of us have ‘status quo bias‘ and this relentless barrage grates. But recently it has began to dawn on me that this message is irritating AND bogus.

Everything #Hot and #New is not destined for world domination, inspite of breathless non-stop press. William Gibson coined the term “Cyberspace” and later popularized the concept in his novel Neuromancer. He has an awesome quote attributed to him way back in 1993: “The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed”.

Remembering that quote was the breakthrough. It helped me understand that while Change is a constant sure it is never evenly distributed. Which I then internalized into my own  framework to better understand change and reclaim my sense of calm.

“5-35-60”

The framework : At any given moment something that has gained real traction is [a] going to peter off at 5% if it is a worthy but incremental improvement over the status quo, [b] going to top off at 35% if it is a vast improvement and [c] peak at 60% penetration if it vast improvement and cheaper then current alternatives and 10x better.

The initial 5% will feel rapid and feed the headlines. The next 30% will be slow but feel fast. The last 25% (to reach 60% saturation) will feel glacial. And after that an evenly distributed 70%+ share will likely be a generational change. 

Things that roughly fit this framework out in the real world:

  • Online eSales (Amazon currently has about 44% of U.S. e-commerce market share. Not even 50%. Amazon ha sbeen at it for 23 years now. Bet you thought it was 80%+)
  • The rise of smartphones (over 2 decades the number of people that own a smartphone is 4.78 Billion, making up 61.67% of the world’s population)
  • MOOCs vs traditonal college education (under 5%)
  • Netflix vs Cable TV as a % of TV Consumption (3 people in a room of 100 people have Netflix, globally. Also that’s how privileged you are!)
  • Tesla is likely not going to own the majority of car market globally (but is priced like it is. Toyota sold 10.46 million vehicles, Tesla sold 367,200 vehicles last year)

Nothing is going to go on a smooth upward path from 0 to 100%, no matter how much fawning press it gets and however much the consultants and industry hacks try and convince you otherwise in their slick decks.

  • Amazon is never going to get to owning 100% of eRetail sales.
  • AirBnB is never going to get to owning 100% of Room sales in a city.
  • Chrome is never going to get to 100% of Browser Share. (it’s 63%)
  • Bitcoin is NOT going to repalce Fiat Currency

Bezos has a mature take on change. In an interview he once said “I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next 10 years?’ And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’ And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. … [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, ‘Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,’ [or] ‘I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.’ Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”

In this breathless no-standards no-skeptic news saturated world we always feel like any new phemomenon/tech is going to own 100% of the market by the end of next year. But Evenly Distributed takes effort, flawless execution and hell of a time and this is if it is much cheaper and 10 times better. Things peter out much earlier (at 5%, at 35%). Even the obvious improvements. Red Queen Effect is a thing too.

This 5-35-60 framework is a calming pill. Take it Neo.

Unimaginable to Imaginable Scenarios – nominations needed

Every innovation sounded bananas before it became reality. The entire world’s information available to a person with a small device? Bananas! America spending $7 trillion on wars in the Middle East and Asia since 2001? Bananas! A cryptocurrency, a form of electronic cash without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin blockchain network without the need for intermediaries powered through blockchain technology and worth $20000 at one point, $10000 today ? Double Bananas! Tesla being worth more that Toyota last week !? Get out of here!

IMG_0299

Breakthroughs defy conventional wisdom. “And yet we keep making the same mistake” when predicting the future, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt writes in his book ‘How Google Works’. Schimdt warns us it’s hard to let go of conventional wisdom when anticipating breakthroughs, because conventional wisdom seems like a set of unbreakable laws.

Schmidt writes how companies can overcome this trap: “The question to ask isn’t what will be true, but what could be true. Asking what will be true entails making a prediction, which is folly in a fast-moving world. Asking what could be true entails imagination: What thing that is unimaginable when abiding by conventional wisdom is in fact imaginable?”

ev2w4

So, ask what thing that is unimaginable when abiding by 2010 conventional wisdom is in fact imaginable in 2020?

My limited nominations :

  • Expensive college credentials become much less important in this coming decades, going the way of NYC/London taxi medallions. Unimaginable in 2010 when colleges were raking in the £$£$ .
  • From the 1970s on you needed a degree for a proper white-collar job. Soon it will be proven coding credentials. Imagine if a candidate says ‘I don’t know how to work Outlook, Excel and Word’ today. No chance of a desk job. Now think coding being like that in 2035. Unimaginable in 2000 when it was a niche ‘geek skill’
  • A hiatus of the Neoliberalism Model as it pertains to free trade. Unimaginable in 2010 when free trade deals were all the rage.
  • ‘the world will change irrevocably postcovid’ – I suspect we will be surprised in hindsight by how little time it takes to get back to how it was before covid in most spheres (esp with reference to travel, work, entertainment). We will go back to normal as we knew it before 2020, until 2019. We will not go into a “new normal” in 2021.
  • FI/RE and Prepper thinking goes mainstream. Unimaginable in 2010 when it was the domain of the paranoid and the weirdos.

In 2007 if sometold told you and me that by 2020 Nokia will be a non-entity you would have laughed the guy out of the room. And yet….

SBUxcyj

69062401_453602518827400_5010822277046992896_o

That Most Critical of All Skills

Most folks who read this blog are in white collar jobs and since the begining of this last decade have been relentlessly bombarded by the trifecta bingo of AI, Automation and Analytics. I dare you to visit your LinkedIn feed and not see these words in 30 seconds of scrolling.

Everyone of consequence in the corporate hierarchy is focussed on learning about, deploying and getting on top of the buzzwords surrounding these three above. For those who feel there MUST be an alternative specialization to the dry world that the 3 A’s above are hinting at, there is.

DECISION MAKING.

If there is ever a vote for ‘the most neglected subject I wish I had been really drilled on and into while in college’ I would handsdown vote : BASICS OF GOOD DECISION MAKING (& BIASES THAT TRIP IT).

When you strip all the superflous layers away (College Credentials, Skin Color, Gender, Looks, Wardrobe, Accent, passport) what really gets rewarded in a truly meritocratic workplace (and organization and society) is a person’s ability to make repeated good decisions. An HBS/IIT grad who has a poor track record of DECISION MAKING will,  in the long run, do worse than a MOOC/Distance Learning Grad who hones this ability and earns a track record of good decisions made. Charlie Munger gave the best tip on it too : Make life easier by making intial good decisions.

So now I really do believe this is The Most Critical of All Skills in the coming decades. We live in a world that, if it rewards anything, rewards better decisions. The rest is increasingly automated.

That Mid-Life Career Crisis Charted Out

I speak from the vantage of an Asian upbringing but I am sure it is universal to most desk jockeys everywhere : That mid-life career crisis many of us undergo(ing) may just be the dawning realization that the Happyness-Job Title & Salary paradigm we have lived with is false. A chimera. A scam. Fake News.

Drilled into us by anxious parents awaiting our exam results more nervous than the student who gave them (us), the paradigm is built on the assumption the BLACK LINE below in the picture I drew is a guaranteed future reality. Like death and taxes. Sadly in the real world there are no gurantees, other than death and taxes. In the real world the black line eventually splits into 2 lines : GREEN AND RED.

After a certain income level (differs country to country) more money and shorter designation (Senior Assistant Vice President to just V.P to just ‘P’) definitely leads to that stress hormore Cortisol surging up in the body but not more Happyness per se. This is not opinion but research driven. But it gels beautifully with that famous other study about motivation..

Alas if only this was known earlier to our parents, career advisors and teachers. So many Mid-Life Career Crisis could have been anticipated and averted.

Not too late for a lot of us still to steer away from this iceberg. Rethink the path Neo!

IMG_20200601_230834

A Metaphor To Help Better Understand The Ongoing Changes

There are two central things that make up most of our lives in 2020 :
A. Physical things (baryonic matter)
B. Digital things (information, represented in 0s,1s in this young century)

Till about 1950, before the Anthropocene truly began, most of world trade, world GDP and our grandparents lives was all about A.

Once Computers, Internet, Cheap bandwidth, Smartphones and Wifi truly took hold in the last 3 odd decades, most of world trade, world GDP and our lives became about B. Our world will keep getting smaller and ideas and connection will be the currencies that matter, not atoms or molecules.

You read a paper book then (a thing). You read a kindle eBook now now (0s,1s). Today, humanity fabricates 1,000 times more transistors annually than the entire world grows grains of wheat and rice combined.

In 1920 : Oil was Oil.
In 2020 : Data is the ‘New Oil’

I sometimes think of this in the way :
My (and your) great great great grandad may have been a sheperd.
His great great great grandson (me, you) is a DIGITAL sheperd.
He moved sheep/cows. (Physical things, baryonic matter)
You and I move information on a screen. (Digital things (information, represented in 0s,1s). All we mostly do is sheperd information into the right excel cell, ppt slide, email. from another excel cell, ppt slide, email send to us, after some ‘analysis’ (that a bot will master by 2030)

A famous quote captures the current zeitgiest “Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate. Something interesting is happening.”

PAST :

A hunderd years ago it was all physical. The world’s largest taxi company would have owned physical vehicles. The world’s most popular media owners would have not only owned the content but created the IP. The most valuable retailer (likely Sears) would have owned inventory and stores. And the world’s largest accommodation provider would surely have owned their real estate.

PRESENT :
Till Covid19 we had to move ourselves to an office building to move information around. Post Covid19 we are realizing we just may not have have to move ourselves to a building to move information around. At least a lot of us may not have to anymore. Analysis is becoming location agnostic on a wide scale.

So now the question we are all grappling with : Can this be a permanent thing for my industry ? Can the majority staff wfh moving their daily quota of 1s,0s. What trends that were slow will now see mass adoption thanks to the very unexpected covid ’19x’ Boost ?

FUTURE :
Today we order physical things that arrives automagically to our front door via the Digital apex & Gorilla of this young century = Amazon.com (by the way the real secret sauce in and of Amazon is AWS, not the store). But later, say by 2040s, we may have perfected Version 11 of the 3D printers of today and like how a 1990 pager is a toy compared to a 2020 iPhone 11, this 11th verison of the Digital Printer will make the ones we have today look like a cheap calculator. In 2050 the printer will use Digital Modelling Information to make a Physical thing. Finally fusing A & B seamlessly. I also suspect eventually money will finally be recognized as just another form of ‘information’ as a store of value and central banks will disapper. The ultimate digitization of a physical embodiment of value since the dawn of the humans as a settled species. This is a future that does not seem impossible to me.

By the way this above reason is why after Reading, wRitng and aRithmetic (3 Rs), Coding is the new necessary 4th skill. This transiton form A to B will need a lot of coders in the next few decades. Good luck Liberal Arts Majors!

I really hope this metaphor helps you a little bit in better understanding the ongoing changes. It is no doubt incredibly simplified and simplistic but it really helps me make sense of this new order we are rapidly moving into.

linear-vs-exponential-comic

Skillsets in a Black Swan World

As a white collar professional since 2001 I, like a lot of my colleagues and friends, dutifully skilled up for a linear predictable world. “Learn X skill, do Y job. X skill will be relevant for decades” went the thinking. Most of us ensure our kids skill up similarly. For a stable predictable world. 

But now I am pivoting to thinking these skills are only useful in the spaces between two black swan events (BSEs). And that gap between two BSEs seems to be getting tighter, smaller, more narrow. It’s a VUCA world now.

leadership-vuca-mob

This last few decades the globalized world rewarded people who were best at communicating ideas than it did people with the best ideas. Steve Jobs did not invent the smartphone, IBM did. But Jobs was a goddamn genius at selling the proposition and then placing Apple as the defacto choice. The Apple smartphone was a black swan event for a lot of industries, not just Blackberry. Blackberry was still optimizing for a expensive low bandwidth world that soon disappeared.

Had ‘cheap bandwidth’ not become a thing at the turn of the century, many of us would be in a different country doing a different thing. Most of us in 1990 never imagined that among the TOP 3 things that would change our life “Cheap bandwidth” would occupy a slot. 

Office work benefits extroverts who are great at talking. Pre Covid we were all in offices. Now post Covid, we are in the world of Remote work. Remote work benefits introverts who are great at Writing. A skill some of us lost between the day we submitted our last essay assignment in college and when our employer issued us our first Blackberry. The guy who worked to get better at talking is now likely at a disadvantage vs a guy who can communicate well in writing. 

Covid was a BSE for us (except maybe for Bill Gates who saw it coming). Most of our dads and teachers prepped us, berated us and cajoled is to prep for a world that never came about. “You will never have a calculator with you all the time, learn trignometry and facts by heart you fool! You should know when the Third Battle of Panipat was fought or else you will likely fail in life!”

2-9-Newsletter

Things we did not anticpate when we were skilling up in schools and colleges, learning trignometry and that the mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell :

  • Cheap Bandwidth
  • The Internet
  • Amazon.com going mainstream
  • The concept of offshoring work (delinking end result of work from work location)
  • Google
  • 9/11 and how it changed the world order
  • iphone 2007 and the revolution it birthed
  • GFC 2008
  • Covid19

Skilling up for a specific domain with likely relevant skillsets now seems a riskier proposition by the day to me. BSEs will derail most plans on that front. Maybe Scott Adams in bang on the money when he promotes STACKING TALENT vs chasing specific domain skills.

I am certain in 2030 many of us are going to look back and lament “Can’t believe I was prepping and skilling for THAT useless at work scenario and that work scenario!”

Thanks Dan!

Few in the professional circles truly realize how much of their life situation,career and bank balance they owe to Dan Bricklin.

Dan Who ?

Exactly.

Dan invented something that may well last into the next century.

The true precursor to MS Excel.

Steve Jobs used to in that eloquent way he was known for said ‘Computers Are Like a Bicycle for the Mind

 The Excel Program may just be one of the two wheels in that bike! The browser likely is the other wheel.

Thanks Dan!

Dan_Twitter3_2011-10-12

 

The Best 30 Longform Articles of 300 I Read

Since 2016 I started reading and scrupulously tracking all the longfrom articles I read. Longform is any essay or article over 3000 words. It allowed me to then do this : Nominate a few outstanding longforms that I think more people should read. Because they are just so good and well worth the time invested in reading it.

2 years ago I highlighted the best of the original 300 longforms I read in 2 posts. Post 1 and Post 2. Recently I just finished another 300 in the 2 years since the last update and from the latest 300, here below are the best 30 longforms. Below each I outline the context, the web url and why it was so good. Enjoy!

A brilliant speech On Concentration, Solitude And Leadership. 

Context : This lecture was delivered to the class at the United States Military Academy at West Point in October 2009 by William, an essayist and book critic.

URL : https://theamericanscholar.org/solitude-and-leadership/

I love this LFA because : I have rarely thought about Solitude as an essential component of leadership and William brilliantly articulate WHY it is so crucial.
The Most Gullible Man In Cambridge

Context : A Harvard Law Professor who teaches Harvard student about judgment shows appalingly poor judgment

URL : https://www.thecut.com/2019/07/bruce-hay-paternity-trap-maria-pia-shuman-mischa-haider.html

I love this LFA because : the sheer WTFuckery of this story is amazing. Just…how is this possible ?
E-Mail From Bill

Context : A longform from The New Yorker 1993 this is a a brilliant Profile Of Bill Gates And The Zeitgeist In Late 1993 when the internet was not really a thing yet.

URL : https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1994/01/10/e-mail-from-bill

I love this LFA because : An amazing profile of Bill Gates and how he was thinking about the future 27 years earlier, well before smartphones and internet became commom
Blood And Soil In Narendra Modi’s India

Context :  The state of Indian politics 73 years after independence. Disturbing.

URL :https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/12/09/blood-and-soil-in-narendra-modis-india

I love this LFA because : This LFA gives a grand tour of the rotten state of Indian Civic life and what the end of the shady Congress regime looks like. Spoiler – frying pan to fire
Turkey’s Thirty-Year Coup

Context : What Erdogan is doing in Turkey

URL : https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/17/turkeys-thirty-year-coup

I love this LFA because : If the LFA before gives a give overview of India, this one does the same for Turkey, the supposed bridge between East and West
THE HUMAN FACTOR

Context : How And Why Air France Flight 447 Crashed over the atlantic ocean

URL : https://www.vanityfair.com/news/business/2014/10/air-france-flight-447-crash

I love this LFA because : this article was so gripping i think i was holding my breath as I was reading it. After rewading it I now think what a AVOIDABLE tragedy this one was.
The Story Of Jamal Khashoggi’s Murder In Istanbul 

Context : How MBS and KSA planned and executed the murder of an old journalist

URL : https://www.insider.com/the-murder-of-jamal-khashoggi-2019-10

I love this LFA because : this graphic article truly helped me understand the real henious nature of the KSA regime
The Jungle Prince Of Delhi

Context : A Mentally Unstable Woman conned a country AND her family

URL : https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/22/world/asia/the-jungle-prince-of-delhi.html

I love this LFA because : Just an unbelievable tale about a sad family of old in Delhi
What Is Amazon?

Context : A Superb Breakdown Of Walmart And Amazon By Zack Kanter, Founder Of Stedi.

URL : https://zackkanter.com/2019/03/13/what-is-amazon/

I love this LFA because : this LFA truly helped me understand what the giant was really about.
What The Hell Is Going On? – An essay by blogger David Perell  

Context : An Essay On How the G7 countries Got Here

URL : https://www.perell.com/blog/what-the-hell-is-going-on

I love this LFA because : A really good summary of the major changes in the west over the course of a century.
Free Speech And The Necessity Of Discomfort.

Context : This is the text of a lecture delivered at the University of Michigan on Tuesday.

URL : https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/22/opinion/free-speech-discomfort.html?

I love this LFA because : Free Speech is a concept in most people’s head, like the color purple but this is a a Fantastic Speech about exactly what it is and why free speech is so critical in a democracy. Most countries, inclusing UK and India don’t have it.
Japan’s Rent-A-Family Industry 

Context :  Some Japansese Who Are Short On Relatives Can Hire A Husband, A Mother, A Grandson.

URL : https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/30/japans-rent-a-family-industry

I love this LFA because : A look into a facinating niche business that can ONLY happen in Japan
The Crash Of Egyptair 990

Context : Just why ahd how Egyptair 990 crashed

URL : https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2001/11/the-crash-of-egyptair-990/302332/

I love this LFA because : An amazing essay of both the crash and the culture and country it originated from
The Unbelievable Life And Death Of Michael C. Ruppert

Context : I saw thie guy in a documentary on Peak Oil and I HAD TO KNOWmore about what we was about.

URL : https://www.theverge.com/2014/7/22/5881501/the-unbelievable-life-and-death-of-michael-c-ruppert

I love this LFA because : this is a tereffic profile of a tragic man
“It’s Time To Make A Deal”

Context : Texas oilman Boone Pickens is staking A 25-Year Career On One Wild Roll Of The Dice In 1982

URL : https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/its-time-to-make-a-deal/

I love this LFA because : You want to know America did business in the 80s – here is the real deal
10 Important Lessons We Learned From The 2010s

Context : Blogger Mark Manson’s take on the 2010s lessons

URL : https://markmanson.net/10-important-lessons-from-the-2010s

I love this LFA because : A top 10 list to succinctly summarize the decade gone by
Cain And Abel

Context : The Bitter Sibling Rivalry Burning Up An $800 Million Louisiana Family Dynasty.

URL : https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/the-bitter-sibling-rivalry-at-knight-oil-tools.html

I love this LFA because : A true WTF story about how money sometimes is a curse and not a blessing to some families
How An Ex-Cop Jacobson Rigged Mcdonald’s Monopoly Game And Stole Millions. 

Context : Exactly what it says on the article title

URL : https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-an-ex-cop-rigged-mcdonalds-monopoly-game-and-stole-millions?ref=scroll

I love this LFA because : Another WTF story on a US scammer that makes you marvel at human nature
How Qatar Bungled Up

Context : Kidnapped Royalty Become Pawns In Iran’s Deadly Plot and Qatar pays the price in every sense

URL : https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/14/magazine/how-a-ransom-for-royal-falconers-reshaped-the-middle-east.html

I love this LFA because : It helped me understand why what I saw in that movie Syriana was NOT fiction but daily reality there.
London Bridge Is Down

Context : This then is the Secret Plan For The Days After The Queen’s Death

URL : https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge

I love this LFA because : The dealth of the Queen is well planned for. And how!
Hip Hop Music Producer Scott Storch Raked In $Millions And Then Snorted His Way To Ruin

Context : Someone who could have been a music legend ends up in ruin thanks,again, to drugs

URL : https://www.miaminewtimes.com/music/ultra-music-festival-partners-with-siriusxm-for-post-cancellation-radio-channel-11597594

I love this LFA because : It is a text book case of why drugs are always bad news
On The Megapolis That Is Pearl River Delta – The Largest Contiguous Urban Region In The World By 2030

Context : This is going to be the busiest human enclave in a decade. Get to know it.

URL : https://www.timeout.com/hong-kong/en-hongkong/the-pearl-river-delta-megacity-051716
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/pearl-river-delta-megacity-2020/

I love this LFA because : It truly brought to life for me why China was going to be where the action was this century
PONZI SCHEMES, PRIVATE YACHTS, AND A MISSING $250 MILLION IN CRYPTO: THE STRANGE TALE OF QUADRIGA

Context : When Canadian blockchain whiz Gerald Cotten died unexpectedly last year, hundreds of millions of dollars in investor funds vanished into the crypto ether. But when the banks, the law, and the forces of Reddit tried to track down the cash, it turned out the young mogul may not have been who he purported to be.

URL : https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/11/the-strange-tale-of-quadriga-gerald-cotten

I love this LFA because : A true modern day scam with great twists and details
Promethea Unbound

Context : A child genius raised in poverty, she wanted to change the world. A horrific act of violence nearly destroyed her.

URL : https://magazine.atavist.com/promethea-unbound-child-genius-montana

I love this LFA because : An amazing story of when Genius meets Bad Luck
The Basecamp Guide To Internal Communication

Context : How project software company Basecamp communicates internally

URL : https://basecamp.com/guides/how-we-communicate

I love this LFA because : This is one of the most concise and brilliant how-to on communicating I have read
The Inside Story Of Trump’s Shambolic Transition Team – Michael Lewis

Context : Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball and The Big Short, reveals how Trump’s bungled presidential transition set the template for his time in the White House

URL : https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team

I love this LFA because : It’s Micheal Lewis. Expect 24 Carat Quality writing as always. America deserves better. We all do.
The Man On The Operating Table

Context : Baynazar Mohammad Nazar was a husband and a father of four — and a patient killed during the attack on the MSF hospital in Kunduz. This is his story.

URL : https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/03/the-man-on-the-operating-table-msf-hospital-kunduz-afghanistan-us-airstrike/

I love this LFA because : A heartbreaking take of a man in the wrong place at the wrong time
The Toxoplasma Of Rage

Context : Why is Online so toxic ? SSC’s Scott explains brilliantly

URL : https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/12/17/the-toxoplasma-of-rage/

I love this LFA because : An amazing analysis of why and how the culture war will only get worse over time
The US Gambler Who Cracked The Hong Kong Horse-Racing Code Using Probability Theory

Context : Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.

URL : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

I love this LFA because : When brains meets meticulous planning, this is what you get. A gripping story well told.
Worst Roommate Ever

Context : Jamison Bachman’s Former Not-So-Bright Roommates Share Their Horror Stories About A damn twisted Man

URL : http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/02/jamison-bachman-worst-roommate-ever.html

I love this LFA because : Having had my shre of weird roomies in my 20s, this one showed me what WEIRD really was. OMG kinda read.